Fantasy Football Rankings
2023 Running Back Fantasy Rankings
When drafting a Running Back for Fantasy Football everyone has their own method of evaluation. Some look for past production, some look for a team with a run first approach, and some just pick their favorite players and hope for the best. All methods have some value, but not all are created equally.
When looking for a fantasy stud, certain RB stats give clues to fantasy success. To be more scientific, some stats correlate stronger to fantasy success than others. In fact, Rushing Attempts are a staggering 0.96 Pearson Coefficient to Rushing Yards. And, Rushing Yards are a 0.96 Coefficient to Fantasy Points. Find the attempts - find the points.
Quick Review of correlations:
A coefficient of -1 is a perfect inverse relationship. When one goes up, the other goes down.
A coefficient of 0 is absolutely no relationship. No connection here.
A coefficient of 1 is a perfect working relationship. They move together in each direction.
When looking for rushing attempts there are macro and micro attempts to consider. First, is how often do teams run the ball. It might be shocking to learn that only 3 teams ran the ball more than 50% of play calls last year. Chicago (56.19%), Atlanta (55.29%), Baltimore (50.18%). Even the Titans, whose sole identity is running the bal with Derrick Henry, only ran 49% of the snaps. But, this seems to be the trend in the modern age of the QB and passing game.
The last thing to really consider is efficiency. The RB can only do so much on their own. The quality of offensive line play should be used considered in ranking a Running Back.
The age old saying holds up, "In fantasy football, volume is king." Rushing Attempts are the holy grail for drafting Fantasy Running Backs. So, let's find who is going to be handed the rock early and often.
Tier 1 - The Guy (With High Volume)
All players in this tier are clear cut RB1s on an offense that calls run >40% of the time.
With Kareem Hunt moving on, Chubb has almost no competition on the roster. He's also running behind the number 2 ranked offensive line which doesn't hurt. His QB has had a year to get his head right, fully integrate, and develop chemistry with his new WR core of Cooper, Goodwin, and Moore. The offense should be more competent this year and give Chubb a lot of opportunities. A dangerous passing game should keep defenses from stacking the box.
Saquon got his deal, he's healthy, and the offensive line has been revamped and, by default, has to be improved. Additionally, the Giants have one of the toughest overall schedules on paper but it has few who are tough against the run and they are spread apart. Saquon should be in store for another high-quality season ahead of him and possibly his best yet.
The King will reign, but the rest of the offense is a question mark. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins should pull at least 1 defender out of the box to give Henry bigger lanes than last year.
Things are looking good for Najee. There is no real competition on the roster and a stable QB situation should provide a more consistent year. The offseason saw a good number of veteran departures, but they were mostly on the defense. The team went out and signed Le'Raven Clark(LT), Issac Seumalo(G), and Nate Herbig(G). They also drafted Broderick Jones(OT) and Darnell Washington(TE). According to PFF this line finished 2022 as 16th overall. They were 7th in passing efficiency but worse on the ground. They were second when running to the left, but only did so 5% of the time. They were ranked mid-20s for runs to the right of the left guard which accounted for 79% of the run plays. That's not good.
The Jags are expected to dominate a rebooting AFC South. Recently, Doug Pederson stated that he wants to push Etienne to 1600-1700 yds this season. That suggests that the Jags will feed him those sweet, sweet touches. While he is talented enough to accomplish such a feat, the offensive line hinges on rookie RT and otherwise beat-up group that ranked 29th last year. Hope of improvement is slim.
Assuming there is no holdout into the regular season the reigning rushing champion should have another stellar year. He had the best rushing offensive line last year that accounted for 4.93 yards each rushing play. While the offense will look different with Jimmy G under center, the Raiders will still want to lean on the ground and possession game against a pass-oriented division.
Tony is technically the lead RB in an otherwise empty roster. Malik Daivs and Deuce Vaughn won't be stealing significant touches early in the season but may creep in later on. Pollard has not carried the entire load for an entire NFL season before. Pollard made a name for himself as a dynamic player in space, but not so much in running between the tackles. Pollard faced 40 stacked boxes and ended with 37 stuffed runs. While that's not completely correlated, it does suggest a lacking power run game.
Last year, Dallas called run on 47.3% of plays. This year Kellen Moore moved on to the Chargers, and Brian Schottenheimer picked up the reins... and handed them directly to Dak. The Dallas offense appears to be moving from a balanced attack with ball control to a West Coast style. If Dak has full control, he brings the risk of frequently calling audible from run to pass which limits rushing opportunities.
Pollard has a good ceiling based on skill but a very low floor based on situation - especially near the end of the year.
Tier 2 - The Guy (With Low Volume)
Players in this tier are clear cut RB1s on offenses who call run plays <40% of the time and are looking at offense inconsistency. These are RB1s with greater risk than ideal, but can be great deals if drafted late or possibly traded high.
JT is a massive talent but he's on a team that's going through some things. A rookie QB is always a time of growth and change that often places extra pressure on the running back. Additionally, this rookie QB is expected to run, often, especially near the goal line. The Colts are generally expected to struggle this year, so running the ball and the clock might not be in many game scripts. While JT might have TDs vultured, he may also haul in a lot of check downs. So he gets a bump in PPR+.
After four years of being a backup, Mattison finally gets his shot to be "The Guy." But, his team is wildly inconsistent. They only called rushing plays 35.62% of the time. That's the second lowest play call percentage in the league. Minnesota has moved on from the days of run-first and only loves Jefferson, Thielen, TE drag routes, in that order. Dalvin Cook got the boxed-lunch and Mattison got the crumbs. Now Mattison gets to eat a more, but it's still not a belly full. Plus the team was volatile who is looking at an angry regression towards the mean.
James is a RB1 on a very questionable team. The game script might cut out the run game early and often, but he can still catch those plentiful Colt McCoy check downs. At RB #25 and overall ADP of #65 he has a good shot at beating his expectations.
Tier 3 - Split Backfields (75/25 split)
Players in this tier have an obvious lead back but share plays either by design or by specified role. These players are typically a RB1 and a RB3 or handcuff.
Christian McCafferty and Elijah Mitchell
CMC is in a great spot with a strong offensive line, a beneficial QB, and too many weapons for any defense to truly focus on him. Shanahan is great at getting star players the ball in space. But, Elijah Mitchell is also a special talent (when healthy) who will get some designed plays. Mitchell might not steal the show, but with Deebo also getting some touches it does begin to add up into CMC's attempts.
Javonte Williams and Samje Perine
Williams will be 100% by week 1. RBs under 25 years old rebound incredibly well from ACL surgery. You can see the confidence that the front office and coaching staff have in Williams by their actions regarding the roster. Williams and Perine are the only two serious RBs on the team. They could have pursued Cook or Elliot to cover for Williams while he eased back in, but they didn't - or at least they've been patient and quiet about it. Perine ran hard for Cincinnati last season and it earned him a spot in this situation. Javonte should still be the focus of the backfield, but Perine will continue to get about 100 touches this year. It should be mentioned that the Broncos went big on offensive line during free agency. In fact, their rank rose 10 places, the biggest jump in the league. Improved run blocking will be great for the RBs but it'll also have a compounding effect by opening up Wilson and passing game which should spread the defense even more.
Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet
Walker exploded onto the scene last year, but injuries kept him down. With Penny leaving and injury concerns about DeeJay Dallas, Seattle decided to draft Charbonnet, the big back from UCLA. This is likely to have Walker be the playmaker and have Charbonnet the 3rd down and goal line back.
As for the team there were issues with the interior line. Seattle ranked 27th or worse at running in any gap left of the right tackle. That's extremely limiting but there's hope in 2023. Interestingly, both rookie OT were solo (no double team help) the third most frequently in the league - and they play in a division with Nick Bosa and Aaron Donald! Those guys are huge building blocks but need to continue to improve. The running game hinges on two interior line rookies, Bradford (G), Oluwatimi (C), who are expected to step up and earn starting rolls quickly. The offensive line can be much improved, but the ceiling is yet to be seen.
Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams
Kamara received a 3-game suspension which isn't a terrible deal. He'll be able to come back into the offense after Carr and the passing game have time to figure it out. Williams will likely act as a 3rd down back and run between the tackles while Kamara operates in space. This is probably the ideal situation for both backs. Kamara did not do well running up the middle last year and Williams wasn't efficient in the passing game. This dynamic gives the Saints extra dimension to the offense.
Austin Eckler and Joshua Kelley
Eckler is the lead guy with a bonus to receptions. Kelley is a relief back with potential to earn a bigger share as Eckler enters his 7th season (which is ancient for RBs). Their schedule is tied for 12-th overall but light on teams with tough run defense. The offensive line should have a big boost with Rashawn Slater back and healthy. Slater's presence will allow Jamaree Salyer to slide back to RG, further improving the line.
The Rams really want Akers to be the guy. He has the skill set they want but injuries to both him and... well the entire offense have limited opportunity. Kyren Williams showed promise last year whenever he stepped into the role. Both backs have essentially the same build, skillset, and yards per rush (efficiency). Unfortunately, the offensive line has unraveled since the Super Bowl run, though the Rams are the only team in the league to have better efficiency rushing between the guards. No improvements to the offensive line have been made which should limit expectations to boost to the ground game.
Tier 4 - Split Backfields (50/50 split)
Players in this tier have two RBs who share a snap count and touches equally (generally). These players are generally RB2s and depth.
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon
The ground and pound duo of the north is set to play a bigger role in the Green Bay offense now that Rodgers isn't the center of the show. With a consistently great offensive line the tandem will both get fed efficient runs.
Brian Robinson Jr and Antonio Gibson
Washington is looking at a strong backfield. Robinson is up and coming stud with a great redemption story. Gibson has been incredibly inconsistent due to injury and wild coaching decisions. But now with Eric Bieniemy as Offensive Coordinator we expect more of a Chiefs style offense, but the Commanders do not have a Mahomes or Kelce. To offset the lack of gunslinging, leaning on the zone run and delayed handoffs will put the ball in the hands of this duo.
Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier
Bijan has all the hype for being a top 10 draft pick. There's no denying that he's an awesome talent, but it's foolish to think Allgeier is going away. Allgeier is coming off a 1000 yard rookie season. You don't ignore a top 10 talent just because you drafted another top 10 talent. The other major draft pick was Matthew Bergeron(LG) which helped keep this o-line in the top 10. Even though this team will likely remain run heavy it will be a split backfield. As of right now, Robinson is being drafted WWWWWWAAAAAAYYYYY too high at ADP 9.
Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire
The Chiefs have RBs but they don't entirely need them or use them. KC calls rushing plays 38.25% of the time which is one of the lowest in the league. However, they have one of the best offensive lines to run behind. This is partially due to every defense selling out against the pass and leaving the center of the field wide open. It's also partially due to game script allowing KC to run near the end of games. This duo isn't so much a 50/50 split as it is a 50/50 coin flip of who will go off this season. One of these guys will make a decent RB3/FLEX with upside.
Tier 5 - Split Backfield (PPR/Standard)
Players in this tier have two RBs who share a snap count and touches but are significantly split on roles of passing and rushing. These players are generally RB2s and depth.
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery
The Detroit offense is very exciting for fantasy owners. Tons of weapons and a pretty soft schedule should yield tons of points. Gibbs was an elite talent in the draft who landed in an ideal situation for a PPR. He will hopefully be what Swift couldn't consistently achieve. Montgomery is a straight runner and a veteran presence. He may start the year as an equal split but should end as a backup. The team plays 8 games against bottom ranked rushing teams from 2022 which is reason for optomism.
Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard
Hubbard stepped up and did well last year, but the Panthers really wanted to replace CMC's role. Enter Miles Sanders. He had a solid career in Philly but is now stepping into a bigger role. It's uncertain how this will look with rookie QB Bryce Young and new Offensive Coordinator Thomas Brown.
Tier 6 - Split Backfield (Weak Rushing Programs)
Players in this tier have two RBs who share a snap count and touches but have offenses who call run plays <40% of the time.
Rachaad White and Ke'Shawn Vaughn (and Chase Edmonds)
Last year the Bucs were last in rushing attempts. This was offset by Brady throwing 50+ times per game. But it's a new era with Baker Mayfield. TB will need to feed the run game and establish more balance. The offensive line was built for pass protection but now has question marks as rookie Cody Mauch takes over at RT and Tristan Wirfs transitions from RT to LT. Rookies, as well as transitioning tackles, do not always pan out. There are many mouths to feed in this backfield and questions up front. It'll be difficult to grade these guys more than a dart throw.
Daemeon Pierce and Devin Singletary
Houston should be better this year. They've really focused on the defense which should keep games within reach for the offense. Pierce showed flashes but the running game was usually scripted out by the second half. After all they only ran 39.12% of the time. Just over 1/3 of plays were opportunities on the ground. This should improve in 2023 but Devin Singletary has entered the fold and he will certainly get a share. The team drafted center Juice Scruggs and attained Shaq Mason through free agency which improves the offensive line. The passing game should be better with more time in the pocket and reliable safety valve Dalton Schultz.
Buffalo has a lead Running Back but he plays QB. The entire offense runs through Josh Allen. Through the air, on the ground, and if water were an option, he would do that too. Buffalo was, surprisingly, calling running plays 40.56% of the time. The problem was some calls were designed QB runs and RBs were often left to get swallowed up on busted RPOs. While the rushes were there, the RBs were not put in positions to succeed.
Tier 7 - Full Running Back By Committees (RBBC)
True RBBC. These guys might have talent but will need injuries and opportunities in their favor to reach RB1/RB2 status.
NYJ - Hall, Carter, Knight, Abanikanada
Breece Hall is an emerging star, but the situation is not ideal. Hall is coming off an ACL from week 8 last year. He's under 25 which means he'll rebound well and he looks to be ready for week 1. But new OC Nathaniel Hacket has a history of using RBBCs. The best season by an RB was Aaron Jones in 2020 when he was with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. He used 3 RBs that year. In fact, Hacket has used 2 or 3 RBs for most of his career in a very obvious pattern. This should look like a familiar setup. While I'm a huge fan of Breece Hall, he likely won't be put in a position to reach his true potential this year.
PHI - Swift, Penny, Gainwell, Scott
Adding Rashad Penny was a bold move but it made sense to replace Miles Sanders. The addition of DeAndre Swift was crazy. Swift was seen as a great talent but never lived up to it in Detroit. He gives Philly a new type of weapon for defenses to think about. Gainwell and Scott did great last year when their numbers were called. All these RBs might be a headache to opposing defenses but they will be dart throws and depth for fantasy owners.
CHI - Herbert, Foreman, Johnson
The leading rusher was the QB Justin Fields. But when a RB got the ball in 2022, it was Khalil Herbert. He did pretty well but was overshadowed by Fields success. The depth that the Bears added with D'Onta Foreman was minor but the draft pick on Roschon Johnson tightens things to suggest Herbert isn't what the Bear's front office is looking for. This backfield is one to watch as it may be cleaned up by cuts.
BAL - Dobbins, Edwards, Hill, Gordon
Baltimore was one of the three teams who ran over 50% of the time in 2022. Dobbins, Edwards, Hill, and Lamar Jackson all suffered injuries at some point. It's a brutal division to try to run in even with a top-5 offensive line. they also added Melvin Gordon for some reason. Lamar has stated he intends to scramble less which will give touches back to the RBs. But can any of them stay healthy enough to be a fantasy winner?
MG3 looked finished in Denver. He was benched for posting 3.5 yds per rush. Justice Hill finished the most games (15), but he only had 49 carries which is near his career high. Gus "The Bus" Edwards was injured but he's been averaging around 150 touches per year. JK Dobbins made it through 8 games last year but he hasn't yet eclipsed 150 touches. If all 112 of Jack's rushes to be redistributed to each RB, we're still looking at about 175 touches each which is not ideal for fantasy.
MIA - Mostert, Wilson, Achane, Gaskins
Raheem Mostert actually had a career year in 2022. In his 7th season he finally played 16 games, handled 184 carries for 891 yards. That's not bad for the chaos the offense went through without Tua. Jeff Wilson appears to be following Mostert's footsteps between San Francisco and Miami. He only finished 8 games but was pushing 92 carries where he averaged 5.1 yards. A full season suggests 190 touches for about 900 yards. That's not bad for fantasy bench depth or desperation. Devon Achane is speedster who ran a 4.32 at the combine and who will surely be scripted into games with specific plays. His smaller frame (5'8", 185lbs) will likely not let him handle the full workload. He'll hit a huge play or whiff. A true boom or bust play. Finally, Myles Gaskins is still around. He only played 4 games last year, but even at his healthiest he's still a 150 touch kind of guy. I would assume that injuries have sapped his speed and explosiveness by this point.