Predictive Machine
The Idea
The initial concept remains strong. Double money each week through using my machine learning program.
I am currently using the XFL and USFL seasons to try out new tools.
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The Plan
I was inspired by u/DiggingNoMore in his post about certain stats correlating to winning in the NFL.
After reading this and thinking about it, I tried my hand at it with a few modifications.
I scrapped the NFL website for all team stats
I separated out receptions and reception yards by TEs
I separated out rushes and rushing yards by QBs
I then performed a correlation matrix to win totals
The Results
Passing Was King In 2022
This makes sense when you look at the top-10 teams in passing yards, attempts, and Yds/att. They all made the playoffs or were right on the bubble (DET and MIA).
Passer Rating (.761) had the highest correlation of any stat, followed by Passing 1st Downs (0.73), Passing TDs (.68), Yards/Att (.607) and Total Pass Yards (.562).
2022 was a very pass heavy year that seemed to revolve around the QB. Miami was the perfect representation of this. Tua finished with a rating of 105.5 and was 8-3 in games he finished. In the 5 games where another QB played the entire game, Miami was 1-3. I discarded the games where one QB started and another finished. Of all the backups, Teddy Bridgewater had a passer rating for 85.5 and Skylar Thompson was 62.2. This significant drop had immediate results.
TDs Lead To Winners
Who would have guessed that scoring points leads to more winning. That was sarcasm. But across the board, Passing, Receiving, and Rushing TDs where the highest correlated stat in each category.
Anomalies
Rushing had very low correlation to winning. I found this surprising since a team with the lead will run the ball more frequently to burn the clock. And what's even more strange is that long rushes of over 40 yards were slightly negative in correlation! Great runs led to losses. Additionally, a rushing fumble was more costly than any positive attribute outside of scoring. I can statistically see why some teams have neglected the run game all together.
Disappointments
I fully expected more from TE receiving stats and QB rushing. Perhaps they're statistically rare which is why they appear to work. Most teams are under prepared for elite TEs and dual-threat QBs.